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šØ OHUBNext | Inflation Cools as Year-End Reality Sets In
šØ OHUBNext | Inflation Cools as Year-End Reality Sets In
š The headline looks reassuring ā but the real inflation story is unfolding beneath the averages.
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Hey Builders!
Novemberās inflation report delivered what markets have been waiting for: core inflation slowed to its lowest pace since early 2021, reinforcing the idea that the Fedās tightening cycle is finally biting (Bloomberg).
December inflation data carries more weight than most months ā not because it changes the past, but because it anchors expectations for the year ahead. With companies finalizing 2026 budgets, investors resetting risk assumptions, and policymakers signaling posture rather than reacting tactically, this report is less about celebration and more about positioning.
Markets rallied. Yields dipped. Rate-cut expectations crept forward.
But households didnāt feel a reset ā and neither did businesses still navigating elevated housing, insurance, healthcare, and services costs. Inflation may be cooling, but prices remain structurally higher than they were just three years ago.
That tension ā between macro relief and lived reality ā is the signal worth paying attention to.
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š Top Story ā Is Inflation Really āSolvedā?
The latest CPI print suggests progress ā but not closure.
āŖļø Core CPI rose ~2.6% year over year, the slowest pace since early 2021 (Bloomberg).
āŖļø Headline CPI slowed to ~2.7%, undershooting economist expectations (Bloomberg).
āŖļø Goods prices continued to soften, but services inflation ā especially housing and healthcare ā remains sticky (Reuters).
āŖļø Markets interpreted the data as confirmation that the Fed is done hiking and moving closer to cuts in 2026 (Bloomberg).
āŖļø Fed officials emphasized patience, warning against declaring victory too early (Reuters).
This is a familiar macro pattern.
Inflation doesnāt retreat evenly. It cools fastest where supply chains normalize ā and lingers longest where labor, housing scarcity, and regulation dominate.
The result is a split economy: balance sheets look healthier on paper, while affordability remains constrained in daily life.
That gap matters ā because it determines who actually benefits from disinflation.
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ā” Quick Briefs ā Inflationās Second-Order Effects
āŖļø Lower inflation eases pressure on enterprise budgets, accelerating selective AI and automation investment (Bloomberg).
āŖļø Venture markets responded positively, but capital remains disciplined and cost-sensitive (Bloomberg).
āŖļø The Fed is signaling āhold, not cut,ā reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance even as inflation cools (Reuters).
āŖļø Treasury yields fell after the CPI release, marginally improving debt and mortgage conditions (Bloomberg).
āŖļø Wage growth is slowing alongside inflation, limiting real income gains for workers (Reuters).
āŖļø Advanced economies globally are experiencing synchronized disinflation ā but not synchronized affordability (IMF).
š”The takeaway: inflation may be normalizing, but pricing power hasnāt fully reset.
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š§± Builder Insight ā Read the Real Signal
If you want to understand where leverage is shifting, donāt watch inflation alone ā watch who still absorbs the cost.
1ļøā£ Disinflation stabilizes markets ā it doesnāt reverse price levels.
2ļøā£ Services inflation is the last mile ā and the hardest to unwind.
3ļøā£ Businesses that lower total cost of ownership will outperform those chasing price cuts.
4ļøā£ Workers who build skills aligned with productivity gains ā not cost centers ā gain mobility.
Relief comes gradually. Advantage compounds quietly.
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š¬ Quote of the Day
āProgress on inflation is real, but the last mile is always the hardest.ā Jerome Powell, Chair, Federal Reserve (Reuters)
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š¬ Closing Thought
As the year closes, inflation is bending ā not breaking.
The winners of the next cycle wonāt be those who assume prices go back to normal, but those who design systems, products, and skills for a permanently higher-cost world.
Stability creates opportunity ā but only for builders who understand where the pressure still lives.
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